The Rock’s unbreakable streak just shattered—$6M opening? That’s not a win, that’s a wipeout! 💥
Dwayne Johnson poured his soul into MMA legend Mark Kerr’s brutal rise and fall, but audiences ghosted the ring. Acclaimed by critics, ignored by crowds—is this the end of The People’s Champ as box office king?
Feel the fallout from Hollywood’s latest haymaker. Who’s still Team Rock? 👉
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, the muscle-bound megastar who’s headlined blockbusters grossing billions, just took his toughest hit yet—not in the wrestling ring, but at the ticket counter. His latest dramatic swing, the A24 biopic The Smashing Machine, limped into theaters on October 3, 2025, with a measly $5.9 million domestic opening weekend haul—a historic low for the People’s Champ and a gut punch for indie darling A24. Directed by Benny Safdie of Uncut Gems fame, the film transforms Johnson into MMA pioneer Mark Kerr, chronicling the fighter’s glory days, painkiller addiction, and personal unraveling. Critics are calling it a career-best performance for Johnson, but audiences stayed away in droves, leaving the $60 million production on the ropes. As the global tally creeps to $12.4 million, whispers of awards glory clash with cries of commercial catastrophe: Has The Rock’s quest for Oscar gold finally KO’d his box office invincibility?
The movie’s journey to screens was a tale of high-stakes reinvention. Announced in November 2019, The Smashing Machine marked Johnson’s pivot from CGI-fueled spectacles to gritty drama, inspired by the 2002 documentary on Kerr’s life. Safdie, half of the Safdie Brothers duo, helmed the project solo after his sibling Josh stepped back, infusing it with the raw, chaotic energy of their crime capers. Johnson, bulking up then slimming down via prosthetics to embody Kerr’s gaunt, haunted frame, co-produced through his Seven Bucks banner alongside A24, Emily Blunt (as Kerr’s supportive girlfriend Dawn Staples), and heavyweights like Ryan Bader and Bas Rutten in supporting roles. Belgian composer Nala Sinephro’s score added ethereal tension, while the script delved into Kerr’s 1990s UFC dominance—back-to-back tournament wins in 1999—juxtaposed against his battles with substance abuse and the sport’s brutality.
Premiering in competition at the 82nd Venice International Film Festival on September 1, 2025, the film landed like a perfectly timed uppercut. Safdie snagged the Silver Lion for Best Director, and early buzz hailed Johnson’s “transformative” turn: He shed his charismatic sheen for Kerr’s brooding intensity, complete with a prosthetic nose and haunted eyes that Variety dubbed “a revelation.” Rotten Tomatoes consensus? A stellar 91% from critics, praising how the biopic “sidesteps cliché even at the expense of narrative satisfaction while still landing the dramatic body blows that count.” Emily Blunt’s raw portrayal of Dawn, Kerr’s anchor amid chaos, drew raves too, with The Hollywood Reporter noting her “heart-wrenching vulnerability” as a potential awards magnet. But Venice’s applause didn’t translate to multiplexes. Initial tracking pegged an $17-20 million debut, revised to $15 million, then a desperate $8 million as previews trickled in. Reality hit harder: $5.9 million from 3,345 screens, landing third behind holdovers and Taylor Swift’s enduring Eras Tour concert film shadow.
What went so spectacularly sideways? Analysts point to a perfect storm of misfires. First, audience mismatch: PostTrak data revealed 70% male crowds, 64% aged 18-34—prime Rock fans craving Fast & Furious adrenaline, not a somber sports drama. Older adults, the specialty film’s sweet spot, ghosted entirely, with SlashFilm attributing the “tragic start” to A24’s wide release gamble. Unlike platform rollouts for buzz-builders like Everything Everywhere All at Once, this $60 million bet demanded $100 million+ domestically to break even (studios and theaters split 50-50). A24, riding highs from Hereditary and Midsommar, swung big but whiffed on marketing: A digital-centric push—social clips of Johnson’s makeup transformation and Safdie’s Venice win—failed to pierce older demographics. Deadline quipped that Safdie was spotted in Manhattan handing out flyers like a street promoter, underscoring the grassroots desperation.
Competition didn’t help. Swift’s 2023 concert juggernaut, still echoing with $250 million worldwide (nearly $180 million U.S.), siphoned female and family viewers, while holdover family fare like Moana 2 (Disney’s animated sequel, eyeing $100 million+ opening November) loomed. Johnson’s recent track record added drag: Post-2020 flops like Jungle Cruise ($220 million global on $200 million budget), Black Adam ($393 million, DC’s costly misfire), and Netflix’s Red One (OTT-only, mixed reviews) eroded his untouchable aura. X users piled on, with @Boxoffcewarrior’s October 8 post tallying likes for a rundown: “Rock since 2020: Jungle Cruise flop, Red Notice OTT, Black Adam flop, Red One flop, The Smashing Machine disaster.” Another from @beard2cray: “Damn did nobody see ‘The Smashing Machine’? Why y’all let the Rock flop like that.” Even @nicklopiccolo’s thread dissected the “brand myth,” arguing audiences rejected an “anti-Rock movie” that subverted his heroic schtick.
Johnson, ever the showman, absorbed the blow with trademark resilience. On Instagram October 6, he posted: “From deep in my grateful bones, thank you to everyone who has watched ‘The Smashing Machine.’ In our storytelling world, you can’t control box office results—but what I realized you can control is your performance, and your commitment to completely disappear and go elsewhere.” It’s a nod to his Venice prep, where he lamented being “pigeon-holed” as a blockbuster beast, per IGN. USA Today and BBC echoed his philosophy, framing the $5.9 million (or $6 million per some reports) as a “disappointing launch” but not a death knell. Hollywood Reporter spotlighted Oscar hopes, with Johnson’s Kerr—tattooed, tormented, far from Moana’s demigod—positioned as a Supporting Actor dark horse, much like The Wrestler‘s Mickey Rourke revival.
A24’s playbook offers solace. The distributor thrives on slow burns: Moonlight ($65 million global on $1.5 million budget) and Lady Bird ($79 million) found legs via word-of-mouth and awards. The Smashing Machine could follow, especially with Venice cred and a VOD/streaming push. Projections peg a $30-40 million U.S. total, with international markets (UFC’s global fanbase) adding $20-30 million more. Loss? A modest $10-15 million for A24, per Deadline—peanuts against Everything Everywhere‘s $143 million windfall. But for Johnson, it’s personal: His last unalloyed hit? Jumanji: The Next Level (2019, $800 million). Seven Bucks’ slate—Moana 2 voice work, The Iron Claw cameos—buoys him, but X skeptics like @josh14177313 (October 11) lament: “The buzz about The Smashing Machine gone just vanished… box office flop and nobody cares about the Rock anymore sad.”
Fan reactions split like a cage fight. Reddit’s r/movies (500K subscribers) threads buzz with sympathy for the artistry— “Johnson’s best role since Walking Tall“—but mock the mismatch: “The Rock in a drama? That’s like putting Godzilla in a rom-com.” X amplifies the schadenfreude: @JavierAIfonso (October 8, 76 likes) slammed Variety’s J.Lo coverage while calling Smashing Machine “a disaster” in 3,300 screens. YouTube’s flop videos, like one October 6 upload hitting 100K views, dissect “5 Reasons Why The Smashing Machine Flopped,” blaming everything from Swift’s shadow to Johnson’s “overexposure.” Positives? @novo_IRL (October 7) mourned the original 2002 doc’s burial under the remake’s SEO shadow, urging a rewatch of Kerr’s raw tale.
Broader Hollywood tremors? Johnson’s saga mirrors stars chasing prestige: Will Smith’s Emancipation (2022, $15 million on $120 million) rebounded via streaming, but flops like Amsterdam ($31 million) scarred. A24’s indie ethos—$30 million Civil War (2024, $110 million)—thrives on cult status, not openings. UFC ties boost merch: Kerr’s “smashing machine” moniker, coined by Bas Rutten, sparks apparel drops. Score whispers? Sinephro’s ambient layers, blending folk dread with cage rattles, eye Grammy nods.
As October’s chill sets in, The Smashing Machine fights for survival: November’s Moana 2 tsunami could drown it, or awards chatter might revive ticket sales. For Johnson, it’s a pivot point—back to blockbusters, or deeper into drama? X’s @BrettYeamans (October 8) shared a YouTube takedown: “The Rock Has HISTORIC Box Office FLOP!” The ring awaits his comeback. Deliver a knockout like Jumanji, and he’s champ again. Swing and miss, and the myth crumbles. The People’s Champ endures—but at what cost?
